In the world of self-driving taxis, Waymo just dropped a number that actually matters: 10 million paid rides.
That's not a projection or a promise—it's cold, hard reality. The Alphabet-owned company has doubled its previous 5 million milestone in just five months, creating exactly the kind of growth curve that has venture capitalists frantically texting their associates at 2 a.m.
Having covered the autonomous vehicle space since the days when most people thought "robotaxi" sounded like a rejected Transformers character, I can tell you this acceleration is significant. It took Waymo years—years!—to reach its first million rides. Then months to hit 5 million. Now? Just five months to add another 5 million. If that doesn't scream "hockey stick growth," I don't know what does.
Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana shared these figures at Google I/O, noting they're now conducting over 250,000 paid trips weekly across their operational cities. That's Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, for those keeping score.
What's particularly interesting here (at least to transportation nerds like myself) is the evidence that people are actually incorporating these driverless rides into their daily routines. This isn't just tourists trying the robot car for Instagram stories anymore—it's becoming normal transportation. Mundane, even. And in tech, mundane adoption is the holy grail.
Meanwhile, over in Tesla land...
Elon Musk has announced that Tesla robotaxis will launch in Austin next month. If you're thinking, "Haven't I heard this before?"—congratulations on having a functioning memory. Versions of this promise have been circulating since 2019, when Musk famously predicted a million robotaxis on the road by 2020.
Look, I'm not saying it won't happen this time. But at this point, Musk promising imminent robotaxi deployment is like your perpetually late friend texting "be there in 5"—theoretically possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath (or dinner).
The contrast between these approaches is fascinating. Waymo has operated like the traditional tech tortoise—geofenced areas, gradual expansion, cautious testing. Tesla's been the hare on amphetamines, beta testing directly with consumers through its controversially-named "Full Self-Driving" software, which (despite the name) still requires active driver supervision.
It's not just different tactics—it's fundamentally different technical philosophies. Waymo loves its lidars and high-definition mapping. Tesla hates lidar with the passion of a thousand suns, betting everything on cameras and neural networks instead.
Who's right? Well... that depends.
The economics of this market are potentially earth-shattering. Traditional ride-hailing platforms give drivers about 70-80% of each fare. Remove the driver, and suddenly those economics flip entirely.
I spoke with several industry analysts who confirmed that first-mover advantage here could be enormous. The network effects alone—more users leading to more vehicles leading to shorter wait times leading to more users—create a potential winner-take-most situation in early markets.
For Alphabet, Waymo represents the quintessential Big Tech long game—pour billions into R&D now, dominate an industry later. (It's worked before, hasn't it?)
For Tesla, robotaxis tie directly into Musk's vision of cars as appreciating assets. Buy a Tesla today, let it earn money tomorrow. It's a compelling pitch, if—and this is a Texas-sized if—the technology actually materializes as promised.
The next twelve months will tell us a lot. If Waymo maintains its exponential growth while expanding to new markets, and if Tesla actually puts functioning robotaxis on Austin streets... well, your Uber driver might want to start browsing LinkedIn.
But there's a humbling truth that everyone in this industry needs to remember: we've been promised self-driving cars were "just around the corner" for about fifteen years now.
Some companies just take fewer detours getting there.
