When my neighbor's mom started complaining about her suddenly overbooked leather repair calendar last month, I didn't immediately think "economic indicator." But maybe I should have.
There's something quietly revealing about where people put their money when times get tight. And lately, folks seem more interested in fixing what they have than buying something new.
This pattern—let's call it the "repair rather than replace" phenomenon—has historically preceded broader economic slowdowns. And it makes intuitive sense. When uncertainty creeps in, we make small adjustments to our spending habits before fully acknowledging our anxiety about the future.
The high-end leather repair shop focusing on those perfectly broken-in wallets and designer shoes you can't bear to part with? Swamped with business right now.
"People suddenly find themselves thinking differently about value," explained one shop owner I spoke with last week. "They look at that $900 price tag on new shoes and think, 'Maybe I'll just get these re-soled instead.'"
Economic tea leaves are rarely read from a single source, though. It's the constellation of signals that matters.
Construction—long considered an economic bellwether—is showing classic slowdown symptoms: canceled projects, fewer new builds, and that eternally optimistic corporate terminology of "delayed starts." (Having covered housing markets since 2008, I can tell you those "delays" often become permanent.)
This tracks with historical patterns. Construction reacts quickly to interest rate changes because of its capital-intensive nature. When money gets expensive, breaking ground on that new office complex seems... well, less appealing.
Look, individual experiences don't make economic policy, but they do form patterns. Several people in my extended network have mentioned recent layoffs or (my personal favorite euphemism) "force retirements" in different sectors.
Remember—employment typically lags behind other economic indicators. Companies usually exhaust other cost-cutting measures before letting people go.
What's fascinating is how these ground-level observations capture economic activity happening in diverse corners before it gets sanitized in statistical reports or rationalized in earnings calls. These are the whispered messages of the market, not the shouted headlines.
Is a recession definitely coming? That's still unclear.
The economy remains stubbornly complex (aren't they all?), with countervailing forces at work. Consumer spending has shown remarkable resilience despite inflation. The labor market, while cooling, hasn't seen the dramatic deterioration that typically accompanies recessions.
But maybe we should pay attention to the busy leather repair shops. Sometimes the most telling economic indicators aren't found in dense Federal Reserve reports but in the changing patterns of everyday commerce.
After all, economics isn't just about numbers on spreadsheets—it's about human behavior and the thousands of small decisions we all make every day. Those decisions create feedback loops that eventually become visible in the broader metrics that economists love to debate.
In the meantime, if you've been putting off getting those favorite shoes repaired, you might want to call ahead. Apparently, there's a waiting list.
