Look, I've been covering Tesla's self-driving promises since Musk first started making them back in 2016. And here we are again—another year, another scaled-back version of the autonomous dream.
According to Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, Tesla's much-anticipated Austin Robotaxi pilot will be "Invite Only" with "plenty of tele-ops to ensure safety levels."
Let me translate that for you: humans will be remotely babysitting—and potentially driving—these supposedly autonomous vehicles. So much for "unsupervised" robotaxis.
It's like claiming you've invented a self-making bed that just happens to require someone standing nearby folding the sheets. Technically, yes, nobody's sitting on the bed while it's being made. But come on.
The Smoke and Mirrors of "Autonomy"
What Tesla seems to be building isn't true autonomy at all. It's remote operation with some autonomous capabilities—a fundamentally different beast than what Musk has been promising investors and fans for years.
Remote operation (or "tele-ops" as the insiders call it) isn't new or revolutionary. Waymo, Cruise, and practically every other self-driving outfit uses remote operators as a safety net. The difference? Those companies have generally been upfront about this limitation.
Tesla, meanwhile... hasn't.
I've sat through countless Tesla presentations where full autonomy was promised "next year." That next year never seems to arrive, does it? Yet somehow the demonstrations must go on.
Why This Matters (A Lot)
The remote-operation approach has a fatal flaw—it doesn't scale. Not even close.
The entire economic argument for robotaxis hinges on eliminating human labor costs. If you're just switching from an in-car human to a remote human, you've basically created Uber-but-the-driver-works-from-home. That's... not exactly the revolution we were promised.
This distinction is crucial for Tesla's valuation. A huge chunk of Tesla's astronomical stock price assumes they'll transform from a car company (low margins, tons of capital needed) into a robotaxi network operator (software-like margins, relatively asset-light).
Those are two wildly different businesses with wildly different valuations. One deserves a tech multiple; the other doesn't.
The Art of Technical Truth-Telling
Tesla has perfected a remarkable linguistic dance—saying things that are technically accurate while leaving investors with impressions that are fundamentally misleading.
Notice the careful wording: the vehicles will be "unsupervised." That could simply mean no human in the car, while conveniently sidestepping the fact that humans are still supervising—just remotely.
(Having tracked Musk's statements for years, I've noticed this pattern repeating. Remember "funding secured"?)
The invite-only nature of the program raises eyebrows too. When you only give rides to your biggest supporters and possibly make them sign NDAs, you're not demonstrating a product—you're staging a marketing event.
The Market's Bizarre Response
Perhaps the strangest part of this whole saga? The market shrugs and the stock rises anyway.
Tesla has conditioned investors to respond positively to announcements regardless of their eventual fulfillment. It's pavlovian at this point—the bell rings (Musk tweets), and the market salivates.
This creates a weird information asymmetry. Bulls focus on the theoretical endgame of full autonomy, while handwaving away delays and technical compromises as mere speed bumps on the inevitable road to success.
But startups—even $600 billion ones—don't have infinite runways. Tesla has poured billions into this autonomous project for nearly a decade. At some point, you've gotta deliver what you promised or admit you can't.
What we're getting instead appears to be a carefully managed demo with "plenty of tele-ops" rather than the revolutionary system that's been hyped to kingdom come. Any other company would be punished for such a miss. For Tesla? It's Tuesday.
The market, it seems, will believe what it wants to believe. And when it comes to Tesla, what it desperately wants to believe is that everything is proceeding according to plan—even as the plan itself keeps shifting beneath our feet.
