I've watched Tesla bears get absolutely obliterated for years now. It's a financial bloodbath that would make horror movies look tame by comparison—and yet, like moths to a flame, the skeptics keep coming back for more punishment.
Could this time actually be different? Maybe. Finally. Possibly.
Look, Tesla's recent earnings call was what we in financial journalism politely call "a disaster." When Elon Musk himself describes the road ahead as "rough," it's like watching a captain nervously eyeing icebergs while reassuring passengers everything's fine. Not exactly confidence-inspiring.
What's fascinating to me—having tracked Tesla's wild ride since its early days—isn't just the deteriorating fundamentals. It's the potential collapse of the Tesla mythology. The stock has always traded more on vision than vehicles. The cult-like investor base that treated every Musk tweet as gospel might be losing faith. And markets absolutely hate a fading religion.
The technical picture isn't pretty either. That resistance around $335? It's held like concrete.
(Of course, I say this fully aware that technical analysis can sometimes feel like astrology for people with Bloomberg terminals. But enough traders watch these levels that they become self-fulfilling prophecies.)
What makes this moment feel genuinely different is the broader EV landscape. Tesla isn't the only game in town anymore. Remember BlackBerry? First-mover advantage ain't what it used to be.
Then there's the Elon factor. The man seems to spend more time on X/Twitter than actually running his car company these days. His attention is fractured between, what, five different companies now? Six? I've lost count.
But—and this is a big but—shorting Tesla has been the financial equivalent of playing chicken with a freight train. Smart money has been steamrolled repeatedly. Brilliant analysts with impeccable logic have watched their put options expire worthless while Tesla defied gravity.
As the old market saying goes (I heard this first from a grizzled trader in Chicago back in 2008), "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." Truer words were never spoken about Tesla stock.
So are you crazy for considering a Tesla short now? Not entirely. The narrative decay is palpable. Each disappointing quarter chips away at the mystique.
But timing... oh, timing is everything. Being right too early in the markets is indistinguishable from being wrong.
If you're feeling brave (or foolish) enough to bet against Tesla, remember this: position sizing will determine whether you live to tell the tale or join the support group of traumatized former Tesla shorts comparing horror stories over cheap whiskey.
In my twenty years covering financial markets, I've never seen a stock break more rational investors. Tesla defies obituaries better than Mark Twain ever did.
And yet... this time does feel different. The emperor's new clothes are looking awfully threadbare lately.
Just don't bet the farm on it. Or the house. Or anything you can't afford to lose, really.
Because with Tesla, being rational has been the quickest path to the poorhouse.
