I've been watching the markets closely all day, and the caution was palpable – you could practically feel traders holding their breath.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% by closing bell, while the S&P 500 managed to eke out a 0.2% gain. The tech-heavy Nasdaq performed slightly better, climbing 0.4% as big tech names showed some resilience.
It's that classic risk-on, risk-off dance we've seen before when policy uncertainty looms. And boy, does it loom right now.
"Everyone's essentially waiting for the other shoe to drop," said Marcus Winters, chief market strategist at Blackstone Capital. "The market hates uncertainty, and right now, we've got it in spades."
Tech stocks – particularly semiconductors like Nvidia (NVDA, +2.3%) and AMD (AMD, +1.8%) – provided a bright spot. Seems investors are betting that AI demand will power through any trade disruptions. I wish I'd loaded up on NVDA back in January when it dipped briefly below $700.
The real question hanging over trading floors is just how extensive these "Liberation Day" tariffs will be. Will they target specific countries? Certain industries? The details matter tremendously, and right now, we're all just speculating.
Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year note hitting 4.23%, suggesting some inflation concerns as tariffs typically drive up consumer prices. I noticed gold also ticked up slightly – always a sign of investors seeking safety.
Trading volumes were lighter than average – about 15% below the 30-day mean. Nobody wants to make big moves before seeing the tariff cards on the table.
For what it's worth, I think we're in for a bumpy ride this week. Markets have been relatively complacent about tariff risks, and reality might bite harder than expected.
