I remember the press conference like it was yesterday. Hard hats. Handshakes. Those enormous presentation boards with artist renderings of a gleaming facility that would transform Dayton's economic landscape.
Joby Aviation swooped into Ohio last year with promises that would make even the most jaded economic development veteran weak in the knees: 2,000 new jobs! Nearly half a billion in investment! Air taxis built right here in the Buckeye State!
And Ohio, playing its part in this familiar dance, slid a package worth up to $200 million across the table. Because that's how the game works, isn't it?
Fast forward to today, and... well... crickets.
Drive by that promised manufacturing wonderland and you won't find much happening. Check Joby's job boards and you'll see a paltry handful of Ohio positions. Listen to CEO JoeBen Bevirt's earnings calls and—funny thing—he seems to develop an acute case of selective hearing whenever analysts bring up the Ohio facility.
It's the corporate equivalent of "I'll definitely call you" after a mediocre Tinder date.
The eVTOL Tango: Promising the Moon While Barely Leaving the Ground
Look, I've covered the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) sector since its infancy, and there's something uniquely challenging about these companies. They exist in this bizarre in-between space—needing to convince investors they're established enough to trust with millions while simultaneously explaining why nobody can actually fly in their products yet.
These air taxi hopefuls are like those restaurants with "Coming Soon" banners that stay up for years. At some point, you have to wonder if anyone's actually cooking inside.
To be fair (and I should be), building aviation manufacturing capacity isn't like opening a sandwich shop. The regulatory hurdles alone would make most entrepreneurs curl into the fetal position. The FAA doesn't exactly move at Silicon Valley speed.
But the silence from Joby about their Ohio progress? That's... concerning.
The Physics of Hype vs. Gravity
I've developed what I call the "Gravity-Hype Differential" after years of watching aerospace startups. The principle is simple: the greater the gap between the unyielding physics of actual flight and the weightless enthusiasm of investor decks, the more skepticism you should apply.
For companies like Joby, this differential is approximately the size of the Grand Canyon.
These aren't just companies trying to build better aircraft. They're simultaneously: 1. Developing revolutionary transportation technology 2. Navigating the FAA's labyrinthine certification process (which was designed for conventional aircraft) 3. Building manufacturing infrastructure from scratch 4. Planning for urban air infrastructure that doesn't exist 5. Attempting to normalize the idea of commuting in what amounts to giant electric drones
All while watching their bank accounts drain faster than a bathtub with the plug pulled out.
It's a bit like trying to cook a soufflé while riding a unicycle. During an earthquake.
Does Ohio Matter for Investors?
I spoke with several investment analysts covering the eVTOL space, and the consensus seems to be that the market won't necessarily punish Joby specifically for the Ohio slowdown. After all, most investors in this sector have already factored significant delays into their models. (When has an aviation program ever delivered on time? Boeing's Dreamliner says hello.)
But there's something more insidious happening that I've seen doom other aerospace startups—what one analyst called "credibility leakage."
Each unfulfilled promise doesn't just affect that specific project; it creates hairline fractures in the company's overall narrative. Investors start applying discount factors to everything the company says.
"They promised 2,000 jobs but delivered 50? Maybe their production rate projections need a similar adjustment."
This is particularly dangerous for pre-revenue companies like Joby, whose entire valuation rests on the plausibility of future scenarios. When your product isn't actually flying paying customers yet, narrative is everything.
The Competition Isn't Standing Still
What's particularly noteworthy here is how this contrasts with Joby's competitors. Archer Aviation, for instance, has been somewhat more... shall we say... grounded in its facility and production commitments (though equally ambitious in its overall vision).
Having attended investor presentations from both companies, the difference in approach is subtle but real. In an industry where everyone's timeline seems to have been created in the fiction section of the library, relative credibility becomes a meaningful differentiator.
The company that overpromises least might just win the confidence game.
What's an Investor to Do?
For those holding $JOBY shares (or thinking about it), the Ohio situation provides a useful calibration tool. This isn't really about whether Dayton eventually gets 200 or 2,000 jobs. It's about developing a realistic adjustment factor for all of Joby's projections.
If they're hitting maybe 10% of their promised pace on facility development, what might that suggest about their manufacturing ramp-up timelines? Their certification estimates? Their production cost projections?
The eVTOL industry will eventually take flight—the technical progress is genuinely impressive, and I've seen enough prototypes flying to believe the core technology works. But the road (skyway?) between today's promises and tomorrow's air taxi network will be longer and bumpier than any investor presentation suggests.
In the meantime, perhaps Ohio officials shouldn't be measuring for curtains in that mostly empty facility just yet.
