The employment numbers just dropped, and they're telling a story many economists have been anticipating for months. Job openings in October fell to their lowest level since February 2021, according to Indeed's latest tracking data—a clear signal that the red-hot labor market that defined the post-pandemic recovery is finally cooling off.
I've been covering employment trends for over a decade, and this shift feels significant. Not catastrophic, mind you, but meaningful.
The timing couldn't be more ironic. Just as the Federal Reserve seems ready to pivot away from its aggressive rate-hiking campaign, the job market appears to be giving them exactly what they wanted all along: moderation. It's like when your Amazon package finally arrives the day after you've given up and bought the item at a local store.
"Companies are definitely becoming more cautious with their hiring plans," explained Teresa Rodriguez, chief economist at Capital Market Advisors, when I spoke with her yesterday. "They're not panicking—not yet anyway—but they're clearly hitting the pause button on expansion."
What's particularly striking is where the slowdown is happening. Tech and professional services—those same sectors that couldn't hire fast enough during 2021—are now pumping the brakes hardest. Remember when tech CEOs were offering ridiculous signing bonuses and fully-paid relocations? Those days feel like ancient history now.
Look, one month of data doesn't make a trend. We all know that. But this isn't coming out of nowhere, either.
The job market has been defying gravity for so long that many of us forgot what normal even looks like. Openings have been running well above historical averages for nearly two years, creating what some economists (rather dramatically) called "the greatest labor shortage in American history."
Now we're seeing a correction. Not a collapse.
For job seekers, this means the days of fielding multiple offers might be winding down. The employee who once confidently negotiated for remote work, equity packages, and four-day workweeks might need to temper their expectations a bit.
But here's where it gets interesting—and this is something I've observed across multiple business cycles. When hiring standards tighten, productivity often improves. Those "nice-to-have" positions that companies create during boom times? They're the first to go when uncertainty creeps in. It's corporate belt-tightening 101.
The regional breakdown tells its own story. While coastal tech hubs are seeing the sharpest pullbacks, manufacturing-heavy regions in the Midwest show more stability. (This geographic divergence tends to happen during transition periods, before a trend fully takes hold nationwide.)
Should we be worried about outright job losses next? That's the million-dollar question.
"The relationship between openings and actual employment isn't as straightforward as many assume," Rodriguez told me. "Companies often reduce postings well before they consider layoffs—it's their first line of defense against uncertainty."
The Fed's watching all this closely, of course. After nearly two years of hammering the economy with interest rate hikes, they're finally seeing the labor market response they've been waiting for... just as they're contemplating when to start cutting rates again. The timing is almost comical.
What we're likely seeing is the slow unwinding of post-pandemic distortions—a messy, uneven process that was always going to happen. The only real surprise is how long it took to begin.
For what it's worth, I'll be paying close attention to next week's official JOLTS report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indeed's numbers don't always align perfectly with government figures, though they typically capture the same directional trends.
In the meantime, my advice to both employers and job seekers remains the same: don't overreact to one month's data... but don't ignore it either. The labor market isn't crashing—it's normalizing.
And maybe, just maybe, that's exactly what we need right now.
