I've watched this same tech drama play out for years—ambitious investor backs the scrappy challenger, market crowns someone else king, and then comes the long, painful period of second-guessing. It's a script we all know by heart, yet we keep showing up for the sequel.
This AMD-NVIDIA situation? Classic investor psychology at work. The mental tug-of-war between sticking to your guns and admitting the market might know something you don't.
Let's be blunt about it. NVIDIA has absolutely steamrolled AMD these past five years. Sure, your 20% gain on AMD isn't terrible (better than parking cash in some mediocre ETF), but compared to NVIDIA's stratospheric rise? It's like comparing a paper airplane to a rocket ship.
Every time Jensen stands on stage with another AI chip breakthrough, the market... well, it loses its collective mind. Money pours in like—I've seen this firsthand covering tech conferences—like rain during monsoon season.
What's really going on here? Three psychological barriers worth examining:
First, you're caught in the sunk cost trap. Not just financially, but identity-wise. You've become "an AMD person." I've interviewed countless investors who wrapped their self-image around a stock pick. Never ends well.
Second, there's our cultural obsession with underdogs. Something about Lisa Su's leadership against Jensen's empire feels like it should be a Netflix documentary, right? But semiconductors aren't feel-good sports movies. They're brutal technological cage matches where scale wins.
Third—and this keeps even seasoned investors awake at night—what if you jump ship at exactly the wrong moment? Having covered market timing anxiety for over a decade, I can tell you this fear paralyzes more portfolios than any other.
Your instinct to split the difference isn't just reasonable. It's prudent.
Will NVIDIA keep dominating? That's the trillion-dollar question hanging over Silicon Valley happy hours. They've positioned themselves brilliantly for the AI gold rush, with a moat that looks wider than the Pacific. But (and this is crucial) semiconductor history is littered with former champions. Just ask the folks at Intel how permanent their advantage seemed in 2010.
AMD continues making solid products. They execute well. They just... haven't captured the narrative. And in today's market, narrative moves mountains.
Look, I've interviewed fund managers who made billions and those who lost their shirts. The successful ones share one trait: emotional detachment from their positions. They separate their admiration for products from their assessment of stocks.
Sometimes the smartest investment decision feels intellectually unsatisfying. That's investing for you—more psychology than pure math.
So go ahead with your 50/50 split. Just promise me one thing? Don't check AMD's stock the day after you sell. That road leads nowhere good, trust me.
